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Assessing forecast uncertainties in a VECX model for Switzerland : an exercise in forecast combination across models and observation windows
Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin (contributor);  … - 2007
We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003561644
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On identification of Bayesian DSGE models
Koop, Gary; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron - 2011
In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009238657
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Bayesian exploratory factor analysis
Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; … - 2014
This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010386488
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The quantity and quality of children : a semi-parametric Bayesian IV approach
Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Halla, Martin; Posekany, … - 2014
Prior empirical research on the theoretically proposed interaction between the quantity and the quality of children builds on exogenous variation in family size due to twin births and focuses on human capital outcomes. The typical finding can be described as a statistically nonsignificant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257598
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Bayesian procedures as a numerical tool for the estimation of dynamic discrete choice models
Haan, Peter; Kemptner, Daniel; Uhlendorff, Arne - 2012
assumptions which are consistent with economic theory, e.g. log-normally distributed consumption preferences, the Bayesian method …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009537623
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Reverse Bayesianism: revising beliefs in light of unforeseen events
Becker, Christoph; Melkonyan, Tigran A.; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2020
Bayesian Updating is the dominant theory of learning in economics. The theory is silent about how individuals react to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012306040
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Behavioral welfare economics and risk preferences: a Bayesian approach
Gao, Xiaoxue Sherry; Harrison, Glenn W.; Tchernis, Rusty - 2020
We propose the use of Bayesian estimation of risk preferences of individuals for applications of behavioral welfare economics to evaluate observed choices that involve risk. Bayesian estimation provides more systematic control of the use of informative priors over inferences about risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012263314
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The downward spiral
Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, Nezih; Kopecky, Karen A. - 2022
There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, a model is constructed where individuals choose whether to use opioids recreationally, knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying. These odds are functions of recreational opioid usage....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013382024
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Biased survival expectations and behaviours: does domain specific information matter?
Costa-Font, Joan; Vilaplana Prieto, Cristina - 2021
We study biased survival expectations across two domains and examine whether such biased expectations influence health and financial behaviors. Combining individual-level longitudinal data, retrospective, and end of life data from several European countries for more than a decade, we estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012703131
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Mortality inequality : the good news from a county-level approach
Currie, Janet M.; Schwandt, Hannes - 2016
at age 40 to 50. However, we show that among infants, children, and young adults, mortality has been falling more quickly … in poorer areas with the result that inequality in mortality has fallen substantially over time. This is an important … that today's children are likely to face considerably less inequality in mortality as they age than current adults. We also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011458800