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On the impact of oil prices on sectoral inflation : evidence from world's top oil exporters and importers
Ben Salem, Leila; Nouira, Ridha; Rault, Christophe - 2024
This paper investigates the impact of oil price variations on sectoral inflation for a sample of 10 top oil importing and exporting countries. Specifically, we analyze the effects of oil prices on the consumer price index using monthly data spanning the July 2009 to February 2021 period. Two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014454468
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What remains after the oil boom is over?
Jelnov, Pavel - 2019
This paper links between Beckerian literature that shows that marriage is a normal good with respect to male income and the literature that explores cultural changes as a result of exogenous events. I use the oil crisis of the 1970s as a positive shock on some males. The analyzed outcome is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012005460
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Transmission of US and EU economic policy uncertainty shock to Asian economies in bad and good times
Balcilar, Mehmet; Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin; Ozdemir, Huseyin - 2020
This study empirically examines the fragility of five major Asian economies (China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and South Korea) to economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of US and EU, and oil prices in different state of the economies. To investigate these dynamics, we use the relative tail dependence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012226632
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Volatility spillover between oil prices and main exchange rates : evidence from a DCC-GARCH-connectedness approach
Ben Salem, Leila; Zayati, Montassar; Nouira, Ridha; … - 2024
contagion spillover volatility by focusing on a sample of major oil-exporting and oil-importing countries using daily data from …; during COVID-19; and during the Russian-Ukrainian war. Our results confirm the persistence of volatility for the series … volatility transmission between oil prices and exchange-rate markets. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014494631
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How do oil prices affect the GDP and its components? : new evidence from a time-varying threshold model
Ben Salem, Leila; Nouira, Ridha; Saafi, Sami; Rault, … - 2024
Revealing the precise thresholds at which fluctuations in oil prices start to affect gross domestic product and its various components (consumption, investment, expenditure and exports) holds significant implications for policymakers in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Existing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014527191
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Volatility and growth : governments are key
Jetter, Michael - 2013
paper offers a solution to this disagreement, suggesting that volatility carries a positive direct effect, but also a … volatility is then ambiguous. The paper reveals the underlying endogeneity of government size in a balanced panel of 95 countries … increase of volatility lowers growth by up to 0.57 percentage points in a democracy, but raises growth by 1.74 percentage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010228789
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Aggregate-level migration studies as a tool for forecasting future migration streams
Fertig, Michael; Schmidt, Christoph M. - 2000
Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011336860
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Google econometrics and unemployment forecasting
Askitas, Nikolaos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2009
The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003859346
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Mobility in an enlarging European Union : projections of potential flows from EU's eastern neighbors and Croatia
Fertig, Michael; Kahanec, Martin - 2013
This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts using an adaption of the model of Hatton (1995) to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010194751
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The predictive power of self-control for life outcomes
Cobb-Clark, Deborah A.; Dahmann, Sarah Christina; … - 2021
This study investigates the predictive power of self-control for individuals and their children using population representative data. We use the well-established Brief Self-Control Scale to demonstrate that people's trait self-control is highly predictive of their life outcomes. Higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792212