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How does financial globalization affect risk sharing? : Patterns and channels
Kose, M. Ayhan (contributor); Prasad, Eswar S. (contributor) - 2007
risk sharing. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive empirical evaluation of the patterns of risk sharing among … different groups of countries and examine how international financial integration has affected the evolution of risk sharing … patterns. Using a variety of empirical techniques, we conclude that there is at best a modest degree of international risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003586563
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Mental models in financial markets : how do experts reason about the pricing of climate risk?
Bauer, Rob; Gödker, Katrin; Smeets, Paul; Zimmermann, … - 2024
We investigate financial experts' beliefs about climate risk pricing and analyze how those beliefs influence stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014535704
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Is there a return-risk link in education?
Pereira, Pedro Telhado; Martins, Pedro S. - 2001
Risk averse investors have to be compensated in higher expected returns when facing investments with higher risk … return to education and the risk involved in this investment. It seems that most of the countries fit the pattern well …: higher risk - higher return. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011402654
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Five open questions about prediction markets
Wolfers, Justin (contributor); Zitzewitz, Eric (contributor) - 2006
prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management -- in both the public and private sectors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003278954
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Competing approaches to forecasting elections : economic models, opinion polling and prediction markets
Leigh, Andrew (contributor); Wolfers, Justin (contributor) - 2006
We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003334619
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Prediction markets for economic forecasting
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2012
Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009568582
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Exponential growth bias in the prediction of COVID-19 spread and economic expectation
Banerjee, Ritwik; Majumdar, Priyama - 2020
Exponential growth bias (EGB) is the pervasive tendency of people to perceive a growth process as linear when, in fact, it is exponential. In this paper, we document that people exhibit EGB when asked to predict the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the future. The bias is positively...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288390
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Sudden stop: when did firms anticipate the potential consequences of COVID-19?
Buchheim, Lukas; Krolage, Carla; Link, Sebastian - 2020
COVID-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only when the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012248894
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Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? : a quantitative prediction of its effects
Donsimoni, Jean Roch; Glawion, René; Plachter, Bodo; … - 2020
Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012202358
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Why do we ignore the risk in schooling decisions?
Hartog, Joop; Diaz-Serrano, Luis - 2014
virtually absent in labour economics text books. This paper documents the scope for risk, discusses the tough disentanglement of … heterogeneity and risk, surveys the analytical models, laments the absence of a good workhorse model and points out the challenges … worth tackling: document ex ante risk that investors face, develop a tractable and malleable analytical model and integrate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010345125