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China's emergence in the world economy and business cycles in Latin America
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2011
world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … associated with a deceleration in China's economic growth in the future for both Latin America and the rest of the world economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009311486
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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012178610
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On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks
Belke, Ansgar; Dreger, Christian; Dubova, Irina - 2017
challenging for many emerging markets. This view is supported by Bayesian VARs specified for the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011631497
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Counteracting unemployment in crises : non-linear effects of short-time work policy
Gehrke, Britta; Hochmuth, Brigitte - 2018
Short-time work is a labor market policy that subsidizes working time reductions among firms in financial difficulty to prevent layoffs. Many OECD countries have used this policy in the Great Recession. This paper shows that the effects of short-time work are strongly time dependent and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011845664
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Identifying the common component of international economic fluctuations : a new approach
Lumsdaine, Robin L.; Prasad, Eswar S. - 2002
common component, we find evidence for a "world business cycle" as well as evidence for a distinct European common component …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411238
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Global business cycles : convergence or decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan (contributor);  … - 2008
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003693703
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How does globalization affect the synchronization of business cycles?
Kose, M. Ayhan (contributor); Prasad, Eswar S. (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001745312
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Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a global perspective
Dées, Stephane; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa; … - 2008
New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been extensively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macroeconomic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003652695
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Military intervention via drone strikes
Mahmood, Rafat; Jetter, Michael - 2019
We study the 420 US drone strikes in Pakistan from 2006-2016, isolating causal effects on terrorism, anti-US sentiment, and radicalization via an instrumental variable strategy based on wind. Drone strikes are suggested to encourage terrorism in Pakistan, bearing responsibility for 16 percent of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012005283
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Economic sanctions and trade flows in the neighbourhood
Bove, Vincenzo; Di Salvatore, Jessica; Nisticò, Roberto - 2023
We investigate the effect of economic sanctions on trade flows in countries sharing a border with sanctioned states. According to trade models, sanctions are expected to reduce trade flows as they disrupt established trading routes and economic relationships with suppliers and customers....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014228970