In this paper we propose a simple extension to the panel case of the covariate-augmented Dickey Fuller (CADF) test for unit roots developed in Hansen (1995). The extension we propose is based on a p-values combination approach that takes into account cross-section dependence. We show that the...

This paper proposes a strategy to increase the efficiency of forecast combination. Given the availability of a wide range of forecasts for the same variable of interest, our goal is to apply combining methods to a restricted set of models. To this aim, a hierarchical procedure based on an...

In evaluating prediction models, many researchers flank comparative ex-ante prediction experiments by significance tests on accuracy improvement, such as the Diebold-Mariano test. We argue that basing the choice of prediction models on such significance tests is problematic, as this practice may...

Abstract Comparative ex-ante prediction experiments over expanding subsamples are a popular tool for the task of selecting the best forecasting model class in finite samples of practical relevance. Flanking such a horse race by predictive-accuracy tests, such as the test by Diebold and Mariano...

If some of the returns to migration accrue from return migration, the optimal duration of migration may be shorter than the feasible duration of migration. We develop a model that provides and highlights conditions under which return migration takes place even though a reversal of the...

We demonstrate how altruism can flourish in a population of nonaltruists. We assume that each individual plays a one-shot prisoner's dilemma game with his or her sibling and that the probability than an individual survives to reproduce is proportional to his or her payoff in this game. We model...