We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant...

This paper evaluates optimal public investment and fiscal policy for countries characterized by limited tax and debt capacities. We study a non stochastic CRS endogenous growth model where public expenditure is an input in the production process, in countries where distortions and limited...

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) is a promise to obtain price level determinacy even if the nominal interest rate is constant. The idea is that a unique current price level ensures that the present value government budget constraint holds. I establish that this idea hinges on the...

The ongoing demographic changes will bring about a substantial shift in the size and theage composition of the population, which will have significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic...

This paper presents an empirical investigation of inflation dynamics in Libya over the period 1964–2010, using cointegration and error correction models. While inflation inertia is found to be a key determinant of consumer price inflation, the econometric results indicate that government...

In 2007, countries in the Euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010,they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and, surprisingly,...

The model developed here postulates that learning through experience plays a critical role in raising labor productivity over time, with three major consequences. First, the steady-state growth rate (of output) becomes endogenous and is influenced by government policies. Second, the speed of...