We consider the properties of weighted linear combinations of prediction models, or linear pools, evaluated using the log predictive scoring rule. Although exactly one model has limiting posterior probability, an optimal linear combination typically includes several models with positive weights....

Motivated by the surge in debt levels through the pandemic crisis, we revisit the issue of the optimal financing of public debt. In contrast with the existing literature, we find that the optimal response of inflation to a large increase in debt levels is a gradual but significant and...