It is an open secret that most investment funds actually underperform the market. Yet, millions of individual investors fare even worse, barely treading water. Algorithmic trading is now so common, it accounts for over 80% of all trades and is the domain of professionals. Can it also help the...

Unbeknownst to the public, most investment funds actually underperform the broader market. Yet, millions of individual investors fare even worse, barely treading water. Algorithmic trading now accounts for over 80% of all trades and is the domain of professionals. Can it also help the small...

Considering market-based inflation expectations, we show that investors’ forecasts are non-linear. We capture this non-linear behavior with a Markov-switching model that allows us to identify a regime of high uncertainty, and a regime of low uncertainty and low concern about inflation. Using a...