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Estimating Global Bank Network Connectedness

Demirer, Mert - 2017

dynamic network connectedness using rolling-window estimation. Statically, we find that global bank equity connectedness has a … the world's top 150 banks, 2003-2014. We characterize static network connectedness using full-sample estimation and … Debt Crisis, and with movements coming mostly from changes in cross-country as opposed to within-country bank linkages …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455541

Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, With Application to Global Equity Markets

Diebold, Francis X. - 2008

We provide a simple and intuitive measure of interdependence of asset returns and/or volatilities. In particular, we formulate and examine precise and separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers. Our framework facilitates study of both non-crisis and crisis episodes,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464836

On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments : Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates

Diebold, Francis X.; Shin, Minchul; Zhang, Boyuan - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

regularization penalties, and we use them in a substantive exploration of Eurozone inflation and real interest rate density forecasts …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814410

Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination : Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and its Derivatives

Diebold, Francis X. - 2018

Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters, our procedures outperform simple average and median forecasts - indeed they …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480620

Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions : Half a Century of Direct Evidence

Campbell, Sean D. - 2005

We explore the macro/finance interface in the context of equity markets. In particular, using half a century of Livingston expected business conditions data we characterize directly the impact of expected business conditions on expected excess stock returns. Expected business conditions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466936

A Framework for Exploring the Macroeconomic Determinants of Systematic Risk

Andersen, Torben G. - 2005

We selectively survey, unify and extend the literature on realized volatility of financial asset returns. Rather than focusing exclusively on characterizing the properties of realized volatility, we progress by examining economically interesting functions of realized volatility, namely realized...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467551

Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management

Andersen, Torben G. - 2005

What do academics have to offer market risk management practitioners in financial institutions? Current industry practice largely follows one of two extremely restrictive approaches: historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we favor flexible methods based on recent developments in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467618

The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve : A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach

Diebold, Francis X. - 2004

We estimate a model that summarizes the yield curve using latent factors (specifically, level, slope, and curvature) and also includes observable macroeconomic variables (specifically, real activity, inflation, and the monetary policy instrument). Our goal is to provide a characterization of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468075

Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility

Andersen, Torben G. - 2001

This paper provides a general framework for integration of high-frequency intraday data into the measurement forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting financial asset return volatilities, correlations, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470566

Real-Time Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration : Monitoring the Risk of High-Frequency Returns on Foreign Exchange

Diebold, Francis X. - 1998

We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471967