"This paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of combining recursive and rolling forecasts when linear predictive models are subject to structural change. We first provide a characterization of the bias-variance tradeoff faced when choosing between...

We contribute to the recent debate on the instability of the slope of the Phillips curve by offering insights from a flexible time-varying instrumental variable approach robust to weak instruments. Our robust approach focuses directly on the Phillips curve and allows general forms of...