We examine whether changes in the distribution of household inflation expectations contain information on future … inflation. We first discuss recent shifts in micro data from the US, UK, Germany, and Canada. We then zoom in on the US to … explore econometrically whether distributional characteristics help predict future inflation. We find that the shape of the …

We test whether forecast bias affects household stock trading by combining measures of bias elicited in laboratory … experiments with administrative trade-level data. On average, subjects exhibit positive forecast bias (i.e., extrapolators), while … a large minority exhibit negative forecast bias (i.e., contrarians). Forecast bias is positively associated with past …