This paper addresses some of the issues faced by macroeconomic model builders in analysing the monetary transmission mechanism. These include the sensitivity of the policy simulation results to changes in the monetary and fiscal policy rule and the introduction of forward-looking behaviour in...

We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...

We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...

Density forecast combinations are examined in real-time using the log score to compare five methods: fixed weights, static and dynamic prediction pools, as well as Bayesian and dynamic model averaging. Since real-time data involves one vintage per time period and are subject to revisions, the...

Density forecast combinations are examined in real-time using the log score to compare five methods: fixed weights, static and dynamic prediction pools, as well as Bayesian and dynamic model averaging. Since real-time data involves one vintage per time period and are subject to revisions, the...

We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...

We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...

In a stochastic frontier setting, we examine technical efficiency in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Evidence suggests that in addition to economic indicators, political and social ones play a key role in development and frontier technical efficiency profiles. The MENA have been...

We offer a macroeconomic assessment of China's Reform Period, highlighting several neglected channels underlining its great expansion. Estimating the supply side of the post-Reform economy reveals the relatively high (above unity) value of the elasticity of factor substitution and the...

We offer a macroeconomic assessment of China’s Reform Period, highlighting several neglected channels underlining its great expansion. Estimating the supply side of the post-Reform economy reveals the relatively high (above unity) value of the elasticity of factor substitution and the...