This paper develops residual-based monitoring procedures for cointegrating polynomial regressions (CPRs), i.e., regression models including deterministic variables and integrated processes, as well as integer powers, of integrated processes as regressors. The regressors are allowed to be...

This is a simulation-based warning note for practitioners who use the MGLS unit root tests in the context of structural change using different selection lag length criteria. With T=100 , we find severe oversize problems when using some criteria, while other criteria produce an undersizing...

Background: Modeling exchange rate volatility has remained crucially important because of its diverse implications. This study aimed to address the issue of error distribution assumption in modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility between the Bangladeshi taka (BDT) and the US dollar...

This study investigates the simplicity and adequacy of tail-based risk measures-valueat-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES)-when applied to tail targeting of the extreme value (EV) model. We implement Lévy-VaR and ES risk measures as full density-based alternatives to the generalized Pareto...

This paper studies long economic series to assess the long-lasting effects of pandemics. We analyze if periods that cover pandemics have a change in trend and persistence in growth, and in level and persistence in unemployment. We find that there is an upward trend in the persistence level of...

We consider the problem of testing for a structural break in the spatial lag parameter in a panel model (spatial autoregressive). We propose a likelihood ratio test of the null hypothesis of no break against the alternative hypothesis of a single break. The limiting distribution of the test is...

The previous studies have shown that capital market integration has increased in the ASEAN-5, implying that investors making investment diversification across ASEAN capital markets could only earn limited diversification advantages. To diversify their portfolios, equity investors must find other...

Since 1970 nearly all-Mediterranean countries of the EC had undertaken measures to regulate their domestic market for ordinary wines, in the context of constant fall in domestic demand for that product. This paper provides an empirical modelling framework for understanding the effect on the...

A common finding in the empirical literature is that financial volatility exhibits high persistence, or slow mean reversion of the order of months. We present evidence that financial volatility data contains more than a single time scale. After showing that the expectation of the sum of the...

This paper investigates the degree of persistence of market fear. Specifically, two different long-memory approaches (R/S analysis with the Hurst exponent method and fractional integration) are used to analyse persistence of the VIX index over the sample period 2004-2016, as well as some...