This paper develops residual-based monitoring procedures for cointegrating polynomial regressions (CPRs), i.e., regression models including deterministic variables and integrated processes, as well as integer powers, of integrated processes as regressors. The regressors are allowed to be...

This is a simulation-based warning note for practitioners who use the MGLS unit root tests in the context of structural change using different selection lag length criteria. With T=100 , we find severe oversize problems when using some criteria, while other criteria produce an undersizing...

We present a model in which two of the most important features of the long-run growth process are reconciled: the massive changes in the structure of production and employment; and the Kaldor facts of economic growth. We assume that households expand their consumption along a hierarchy of needs...

The process of economic development is characterized by substantial rural-urban migrations and a decreasing share of agriculture in output and employment. The literature highlights two main engines behind this process of structural change: (i) improvements in agricultural technology combined...

We measure the effect of lockdown policies on employment and GDP across countries using individual- and sector-level data. Employment effects depend on the ability to work from home, which ranges from about half of total employment in rich countries to around 35% in poor countries. This gap...

The process of economic development is characterized by substantial rural-urban migrations and a decreasing share of agriculture in output and employment. The literature highlights two main engines behind this process of structural change: (i) improvements in agricultural technology combined...

We present a model in which two of the most important features of the long-run growth process are reconciled: the massive changes in the structure of production and employment; and the Kaldor facts of economic growth. We assume that households expand their consumption along a hierarchy of needs...

This paper studies long economic series to assess the long-lasting effects of pandemics. We analyze if periods that cover pandemics have a change in trend and persistence in growth, and in level and persistence in unemployment. We find that there is an upward trend in the persistence level of...

We consider the problem of testing for a structural break in the spatial lag parameter in a panel model (spatial autoregressive). We propose a likelihood ratio test of the null hypothesis of no break against the alternative hypothesis of a single break. The limiting distribution of the test is...

This paper shows that the structural breaks are an important characteristic of the monthly labor force participation rate (LFPR) series of Australia, Canada and the USA. Therefore we allow for endogenously determined multiple structural breaks in the empirical specifications of fractionally...