This paper analyzes the structural change implications of consumer credit expansions in a dual-sector open economy growth model. Policy-induced increases in banks' willingness and ability to lend result in new consumer lending, boosting consumption demand and average wages in the nontradable...

When alternatives are compared using an estimated criterion function, this may introduce a discrepancy between the true and the estimated criterion. In this paper, we consider a situation where a preordering (ranking) of stochastic sequences is defined from expected loss/gain, using a parametric...

This paper develops residual-based monitoring procedures for cointegrating polynomial regressions (CPRs), i.e., regression models including deterministic variables and integrated processes, as well as integer powers, of integrated processes as regressors. The regressors are allowed to be...

This is a simulation-based warning note for practitioners who use the MGLS unit root tests in the context of structural change using different selection lag length criteria. With T=100 , we find severe oversize problems when using some criteria, while other criteria produce an undersizing...

Employing propensity score reweighting and event-based strategies, we provide evidence that sustained real exchange rate (RER) misalignments have significant effects on economic development: positive on GDP per capita and capital stock in the case of undervaluation, and negative on the capital...

This paper applies the Model Confidence Set (MCS) procedure of Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2003) to a set of volatility models. A MCS is analogous to confidence interval of a parameter in the sense that the former contains the best forecasting model with a certain probability. The key to the MCS...

This paper reconsiders two questions relating to India's economic growth: structural breaks in growth and the impact of equipment investment on aggregate economic growth. First, statistical tests of structural change show that economic growth in post-independence India has witnessed four...

Among fast growing developing countries, India is distinctive for the role of the service sector. However, sceptics have raised doubts about both the quality and sustainability of the increase in service sector activity and its implications for economic development. Using National Accounts...

A growing body of recent macroeconomic evidence suggests that volatility is detrimental to economic growth. The channels through which volatility affects growth, however, are less clear; substantive evidence based on disaggregate data is almost non-existent. This paper offers a framework in...

This paper explores the degree of structural change of the Philippine economy using the inputoutput framework. It examines how linkages among economic sectors evolved over 1979-2000, and identifies which economic sectors exhibited the highest intersectoral linkages. We find that manufacturing is...