The GARCH(1,1) model and its extensions have become a standard econometric tool for modeling volatility dynamics of financial returns and port-folio risk. In this paper, we propose an adjustment of GARCH implied conditional value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasts that exploits the...

This paper examines the Taylor rule in five emerging economies, namely Indonesia, Israel, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey. In particular, it investigates whether monetary policy in these countries can be more accurately described by (i) an augmented rule including the exchange rate, as well as...

This paper examines the effects of Islamic banking on the causal linkages between credit and GDP by comparing two sets of seven emerging countries, the first without Islamic banks, and the second with a dual banking system including bothIslamic and conventional banks. Unlike previous studies, it...

This paper contributes to the debate of whether central banks can \lean against the wind" of emerging stock or house price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought forward by Phillips et al. (2011), can timely detect bubble...

In the first half of the paper we study spurious regressions in panel data when the cross-section and time-series dimensions are comparable. Asymptotic properties of the least-squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator and other conventional statistics are examined. We show that the LSDV...

This paper surveys recent developments and provides Monte Carlo comparison on various tests proposed for cointegration in panel data. In particular, tests for two panel models, varying intercepts and varying slopes and varying intercepts and common slopes, are presented from the literature with...

This paper proposes a residual-based Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the null of cointegration in panel data. The test is analogous to the locally best unbiased invariant (LBUI) for a moving average (MA) unit root. The asymptotic distribution of the test is derived under the null. Monte Carlo...

In this paper, we study the limiting distributions for the ordinary least squares (OLS), the fixed effects (FE), first difference (FD), and the generalized least squares (GLS) estimators in a linear time trend regression with a one-way error component model in the presence of serially correlated...