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Does accounting for spatial effects help forecasting the growth of Chinese provinces?

Girardin, Eric; Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič - 2009

In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real GRP for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003889550

Are geese flying by themselves inside China? : An LSTR-SEM approach to income convergence of Chinese counties

Cholodilin, Konstantin Arkadʹevič; Girardin, Eric - 2011

In this paper, we examine beta-convergence of real per-capita income of Chinese counties. We account for both the … spatial dependences between counties and the possibility of different convergence regimes. The first feature is captured by … model the estimated convergence rate is 0.8% for unconditional regression and 1.7% for condtional regression, the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009427871

Government spending multipliers in (un)certain times

Fritsche, Jan Philipp; Klein, Mathias; Rieth, Malte - 2020 - This version: September 15, 2020

We estimate the dynamic effects of government spending shocks, using time-varying volatility in US data modeled through a Markov switching process. We find that the average government spending multiplier is significantly and persistently above one, driven by a crowding-in of private consumption...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012289271

Capital taxation and government debt policy with public discounting

Rieth, Malte - 2017

This paper characterizes capital taxation and public debt policy in a quantitative macroeconomic model with an impatient government and uncertainty. The government has access to linear taxes on capital and labor, and to non-state-contingent bonds. Government impatience generates positive and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011746789