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professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003377091
This paper addresses the issue of estimating and forecasting productivity growth trends in the US and Germany from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002637885
We shed light on an understudied group: retirees in unions. Using representative individual-level data of 19 European countries, we find that the share of retirees in unions and the union density of retirees increased between 2008 and 2020. Econometric analyses indicate that on average retired...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014424392
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003577445
A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011432915
In this paper we used a data set constructed for a companion paper (Fritsche/Stephan, 2000) where we explored the leading indicator properties of different time series for the German business cycle. Now we test for the ability of different indicator series to forecast recessions by using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434014
. Our identification of the model implies long-lasting output gaps for Germany – especially for the disinflation period of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437007
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437017
for Germany, the largest European immigration country, shows that more than 60% of the migrants are indeed repeat migrants …. The out-migration per year is low, about 10%. Migrants are more likely to leave again early after their arrival in Germany …, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country, but less likely when they have a job in Germany and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011439143
This paper focuses on the entrepreneurial endeavors of immigrants and natives in Germany. We pay closer attention to … Germany represent about 70% of all Turkish entrepreneurs in the European Union. We identify the characteristics of the self …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011439390