Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 569
Cover Image
Business confidence and forecasting of housing prices and rents in large German cities
Kholodilin, Konstantin; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2014
improving the forecasts, given the local nature of the real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of different predictors is … sample size, the combinations of individual forecast do not improve the forecast accuracy. On average, the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010238830
Cover Image
Forecasting the prices and rents for flats in large German cities
Kholodilin, Konstantin; Mense, Andreas - 2012
-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects helps to substantially improve the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579231
Cover Image
Forecasting the risk of speculative assets by means of copula distributions
Beckers, Benjamin; Herwartz, Helmut; Seidel, Moritz - 2013
on the basis of their one-step ahead forecasting performance. With regard to forecast unbiasedness and precision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009723920
Cover Image
The real-time predictive content of asset price bubbles for macro forecasts
Beckers, Benjamin - 2015
This paper contributes to the debate of whether central banks can \lean against the wind" of emerging stock or house price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought forward by Phillips et al. (2011), can timely detect bubble...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011300629
Cover Image
Reading between the lines : using media to improve German inflation forecasts
Beckers, Benjamin; Kholodilin, Konstantin; Ulbricht, Dirk - 2017
In this paper, we examine the predictive ability of automatic and expert-rated media sentiment indicators for German inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common macroeconomic and financial predictors. Sophisticated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011644446
Cover Image
Prediction intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania : a Bayesian approach
Bratu, Mihaela - 2017
The main aim of this paper is to provide forecast intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania, bringing … methodological novelties in the construction and evaluation of the prediction intervals. Considering the period 2004-2017 as forecast … information has been used, the forecast intervals were very short. The proposed Bayesian technique for assessing prediction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012114562
Cover Image
Energy transition metals
Boer, Lukas; Pescatori, Andrea; Stuermer, Martin - 2021
The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012651692
Cover Image
Do media data help to predict German industrial production?
Kholodilin, Konstantin; Thomas, Tobias; Ulbricht, Dirk - 2014
Expectations form the basis of economic decisions of market participants in an uncertain world. Sentiment indicators reflect those expectations and thus have a proven track record for predicting economic variables. However, respondents of surveys perceive the world to a large extent with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010367175
Cover Image
Log versus level in VAR forecasting : 42 million empirical answers ; expect the unexpected
Mayr, Johannes; Ulbricht, Dirk - 2014
The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010417636
Cover Image
A dynamic panel data approach to the forecasting of the GDP of German Länder
Kholodilin, Konstantin; Siliverstovs, Boriss; Kooths, Stefan - 2007 - Corrected version
effects helps substantially improve the forecast performance compared to the individual autoregressive models estimated for … even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared … forecast error is about 9% at 1-year horizon and exceeds 40% at 5-year horizon). Hence, we strongly recommend incorporating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039490