survey data that is sampled at a frequency higher than annual and that includes only fixed event forecasts, e.g. expectation … mainly reflects the time varying forecast horizon. We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, which reports … to 0:94) with the true dispersion. -- Survey data ; dispersion ; disagreement ; fixed event forecasts …

than could be expected from the whole survey. We focus on fabricated data, which were taken out of the survey before the …