In this paper, we investigate whether the Google search activity can help in nowcasting the year-on-year growth rates of monthly US private consumption using a real-time data set. The Google-based forecasts are compared to those based on a benchmark AR(1) model and the models including the...

We extend the analysis of Christoffersen and Diebold (1998) on long-run forecasting in cointegrated systems to multicointegrated systems. For the forecast evaluation we consider several loss functions, each of which has a particular interpretation in the context of stock-flow models where...