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Disentangling Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks

Camehl, Annika; Rieth, Malte - 2021

We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel … mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly for two months. Restrictive policy shocks lower mobility immediately … mobility, cases, and deaths worldwide. These flattened the pandemic curve, while deepening the global mobility recession. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012549582

On the international spillovers of US quantitative easing

Fratzscher, Marcel; Lo Duca, Marco; Straub, Roland - 2013

The paper analyses the global spillovers of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy measures. First, we find that Fed measures in the early phase of the crisis (QE1), but not since 2010 (QE2), were highly effective in lowering sovereign yields and raising equity markets in the US...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009763863

The importance of global shocks for national policymakers : rising challenges for central banks

Belke, Ansgar; Rees, Andreas - 2009

We analyze the importance of global shocks for the global economy and national policy makers. More specifically, we investigate whether monetary policy has become less effective in the wake of financial globalization. We also examine whether there is increasing uncertainty for central banks due...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003879570

Does the ECB rely on a Taylor rule? : comparing ex-post with real time data

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2009

We assess the differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the ECB when using ex-post data instead of real time forecasts and vice versa. We argue that previous comparative studies in this field mixed up two separate effects. First, the differences resulting from the use of ex-post and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003872913

(How) do the ECB and the Fed react to financial market uncertainty? : the Taylor rule in times of crisis

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2010

We assess differences that emerge in Taylor rule estimations for the Fed and the ECB before and after the start of the subprime crisis. For this purpose, we apply an explicit estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate and of potential output in order to account for variations within these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003931051

Monetary policy, global liquidity and commodity price dynamics

Belke, Ansgar; Bordon, Ingo G.; Hendricks, Torben - 2010

This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. For this purpose, we aggregate data for major OECD countries and follow the Johansen/Juselius cointegrated VAR approach. Our empirical model supports the view that, when controlling...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003934679

The credibility of monetary policy announcements : empirical evidence for OECD countries since the 1960s

Belke, Ansgar; Freytag, Andreas; Keil, Jonas; … - 2012

Monetary policy rules have been considered as fundamental protection against inflation. However, empirical evidence for a correlation between rules and inflation is relatively weak. In this paper, we first discuss likely causes for this weak link and present the argument that monetary commitment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579330

The real-time predictive content of asset price bubbles for macro forecasts

Beckers, Benjamin - 2015

This paper contributes to the debate of whether central banks can \lean against the wind" of emerging stock or house price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought forward by Phillips et al. (2011), can timely detect bubble...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011300629

Time-varying Nairu and real interest rates in the Euro Area

Logeay, Camille; Tober, Silke - 2003

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here for the first time using explicit...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011438545

Monetary policy and mispricing in stock markets

Beckers, Benjamin; Bernoth, Kerstin - 2016

This paper investigates whether central banks can attenuate excessive mispricing in stocks as suggested by the proponents of a \leaning against the wind" (LATW) monetary policy. For this, we decompose stock prices into a fundamental component, a risk premium, and a mispricing component. We argue...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011526074