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When does it hurt? : the exchange rate "pain threshold" for German exports
Belke, Ansgar; Goecke, Matthias; Günther, Martin - 2009
This paper deals with the impact of the $/¿ exchange rate on German exports in the period from 1995Q1 to 2008Q4. Our … strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the EXR go beyond a kind of "play" area (analogous to a mechanical play). We … reaction of exports to a further appreciation of the euro is expected to start. -- Exchange rate movements ; play hysteresis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003891080
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Exchange rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in German exports : sectoral evidence for some OECD destinations
Belke, Ansgar; Göcke, Matthias; Günther, Martin - 2012
A non-linear model is applied where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond … exports is then estimated based on quarterly data from 1995Q1 to 2010Q3. For some of the main export partners of Germany … German exports. -- exchange rate movements ; play-hysteresis ; modelling techniques ; switching/spline regression ; export …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009579227
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German exports to the euro area
Stephan, Sabine - 2002
The growth of the German economy intrinsically depends on the development of German exports to the euro area, which is … systematically underestimates the export demand for data from 1999 onwards, indicating that German exports have greatly benefited …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011436195
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Noncausality and inflation persistence
Lanne, Markku - 2013
We use noncausal autoregressions to examine the persistence properties of quarterly U.S. consumer price inflation from 1970:1.2012:2. These nonlinear models capture the autocorrelation structure of the inflation series as accurately as their conventional causal counterparts, but they allow for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724820
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A noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters : an application to US inflation
Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani - 2013
We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence has declined in the early 1980.s and slightly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724822
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Forecasting the risk of speculative assets by means of copula distributions
Beckers, Benjamin; Herwartz, Helmut; Seidel, Moritz - 2013
The GARCH(1,1) model and its extensions have become a standard econometric tool for modeling volatility dynamics of financial returns and port-folio risk. In this paper, we propose an adjustment of GARCH implied conditional value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasts that exploits the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009723920
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Multicointegration in US consumption data
Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2003
The present paper tests for the existence of multicointegration between real per capita private consumption expenditure and real per capita disposable personal income in the USA. In doing so, we exploit the fact that the flows of disposable income and consumption expenditure on the one hand, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011439261
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The impact of displacement on child health : evidence from Colombia's DHS 2010
Wald, Nina - 2014
This paper investigates the causal impact of displacement on health outcomes for Colombian children of different age cohorts. It uses the Colombian Demographic and Health Survey 2010, which provides both a number of health outcomes and information about displacement of households. Two different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010418029
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Effects of foreign presence in a transition economy : regional and industry-wide investments and firm-level exports in Ukrainian manufacturing
Lutz, Stefan Heinz Hermann (contributor);  … - 2006
investment might positively affect domestic firms' output and exports. Our estimation results support these hypotheses and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003338200
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Russian natural gas exports to Europe effects of Russian gas market reforms and the rising market power of Gazprom
Sagen, Eirik Lund (contributor);  … - 2006
numerical models to study potential effects on Russian gas exports from changes in Russian domestic gas prices and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003338234