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How stable are monetary models of the Dollar-Euro exchange rate? : a time-varying coefficient approach
Beckmann, Joscha; Belke, Ansgar; Kühl, Michael - 2009
exchange rate to one of the politically most important exchange rates, the exchange rate of the US dollar vis-à-vis the euro … (the DM). We use monthly data from 1975:01 to 2007:12. Applying a novel time-varying coefficient estimation approach, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003898577
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Do probit models help in forecasting turning points in German business cycles?
Fritsche, Ulrich - 2001
In this paper we used a data set constructed for a companion paper (Fritsche/Stephan, 2000) where we explored the leading indicator properties of different time series for the German business cycle. Now we test for the ability of different indicator series to forecast recessions by using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434014
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Long memory and fractional integration in high frequency financial time series
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2010
This paper analyses the long-memory properties of high frequency financial time series. It focuses on temporal aggregation and the influence that this might have on the degree of dependence of the series. Fractional integration or I(d) models are estimated with a variety of specifications for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003974563
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Long memory and volatility dynamics in the US dollar exchange rate
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2010
This paper focuses on nominal exchange rates, specifically the US dollar rate vis-à-vis the Euro and the Japanese Yen … dollar rate vis-à-vis the Euro and the Japanese Yen respectively. -- Fractional integration ; long memory ; exchange rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003931070
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When does it hurt? : the exchange rate "pain threshold" for German exports
Belke, Ansgar; Goecke, Matthias; Günther, Martin - 2009
euro. At the end of our estimation period, the previous exchange rate movements had shifted the upper bound of the play … area to about 1.55 US dollar per euro. In our interpretation, this is the current "pain threshold", where a strong spurt … reaction of exports to a further appreciation of the euro is expected to start. -- Exchange rate movements ; play hysteresis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003891080
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Long memory and fractional integration in high frequency data on the US dollar/British pound spot exchange rate
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2013
This paper analyses the long-memory properties of a high-frequency financial time series dataset. It focuses on temporal aggregation and other features of the data, and how they might affect the degree of dependence of the series. Fractional integration or I(d) models are estimated with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009735715
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Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kouzine, Vladimir - 2002
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437017
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Oil prices, exchange rates and asset prices
Fratzscher, Marcel; Schneider, Daniel; Van Robays, Ine - 2013
This paper takes a financial market perspective in examining the relationship between oil prices, the US dollar and asset prices, and it exploits the heteroskedasticity for the identification of causality in a multifactor model. It finds a bidirectional causality between the US dollar and oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009745917
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Global risk and the dollar
Georgiadis, Georgios; Müller, Gernot J.; Schumann, Ben - 2023
The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vectorautoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014438127
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The impacts of global risk and US monetary policy on US Dollar exchange rates and excess currency returns
Bernoth, Kerstin; Herwartz, Helmut; Trienens, Lasse - 2023
We examine the causal relationship between US monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and currency excess returns for a sample of eight advanced countries over the period 1980M1 to 2022M11. We find that the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate is the main driver of currency excess returns. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014305726