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This paper investigates the link between the optimal level of non-financial firms' leverage and macroeconomic uncertainty. We develop a structural model of a firm's value maximization problem that predicts that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases the firm will decrease its optimal level of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002243165
Structural VAR models require two ingredients: (i) Informational sufficiency, and (ii) a valid identification strategy. These conditions are unlikely to be met by small-scale recursively identified VAR models. I propose a Bayesian Proxy Factor-Augmented VAR (BP-FAVAR) to combine a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012125244
Our study investigates the link between bank lending behavior and macroeconomic uncertainty. We develop a dynamic model of a bank's value maximization that results in a negative relationship between loan to capital ratio and macroeconomic uncertainty. This proposition is tested using a panel of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003394919
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the introduction of mandatory face mask usage triggered a heated debate. A major point of debate is whether community use of masks creates a false sense of security that would diminish physical distancing, counteracting any potential direct benefit from masking. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617726
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003577356
This paper investigates the link between the optimal level of non-financial firms' liquid assets and uncertainty. We develop a partial equilibrium model of precautionary demand for liquid assets showing that firms alter their liquidity ratio in response to changes in either macroeconomic or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003394915
This paper empirically investigates the effects of changes in the interest rate as well as transitory income uncertainty on households' consumption-savings decision. Applying a structural demand model to German survey data, we estimate the uncompensated interest rate elasticity for savings, in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009261306
We compare seven established risk elicitation methods and investigate how they robustly explain eleven kinds of risky … behavior with 760 individuals. Risk measures are positively correlated; however, their performance in explaining behavior is … heterogeneous and, therefore, difficult to assess ex ante. To close this knowledge gap, greater diversification across risk measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539235
We assess the contribution of macroeconomic uncertainty -- approximated by the dispersion of the real GDP survey forecasts -- to the ex post and ex ante prediction of stock price bubbles. For a panel of six OECD economies covering 24 years, two alternative binary chronologies of bubble periods...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010400661
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001972760