In this article we model the log of the U.S. and the U.K. real oil prices in terms of fractionally integrated processes with a mean shift. We use different versions of the tests of Robinson (1994), which have standard null and local limit distributions. The results indicate that if we model the...

The Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution recently introduced by Barndorff-Nielsen (1997) is a promising alternative for modelling financial data exhibiting skewness and fat tails. In this paper we explore the Bayesian estimation of NIG-parameters by Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods. --...

This paper considers the introduction of stock options in an (dynamically) incomplete securities market made up of a riskless bond and the stock. The stock price follows a geometric Brownian motion with constant drift. However, there is incomplete information about the unknown stochastic...

Widespread concern over real effects of EMU is consistent with new Keynesian approaches to macroeconomic fluctuations, but more difficult to reconcile with a real business cycle (RBC) paradigm. Using a model with frictions as a point of departure, I argue that nominal price rigidity in Europe is...

The concept of integrated stochastic processes is widely used in empirical macroeconomics; and cointegration analysis is an important framework to analyze economic time series both in single equation and in system approaches. This framework is not only suited to study the relationships between...

Most of the empirical studies dealing with international business cycles have disregarded the credibility issues that play an important role in the decision to join or not a monetary union. Most of empirical applications based on asymmetric shocks have failed to account for these aspects. In...

The behavior of the dollar/euro exchange rate is modeled using a monetary model of the exchange rate. The econometric analysis is complicated by the short sample span of actual euro data available for analysis. Hence, data on a "synthetic" euro are used. The assumptions underlying the monetary...

The conditions under which European monetary policy is likely to be conducted are investigated by means of multi-variate time series modelling using aggregated data of all eleven European Monetary Union member states. A cointegration analysis identifies two stable long-run relationships within a...