Showing 1 - 10 of 13
We examine the role of money in the policies of the ECB, using introductory statements of the ECB President at the monthly press conferences during 1999-2004. Over time, the relative amount of words devoted to the monetary analysis has decreased. Our analysis of indicators of the monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299092
Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multi-country, multi-cultural, and multi-lingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the ECB? Using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299102
This paper analyzes empirically differences in the size of central bank boards (or monetary policy committees) across countries. We discuss the possible determinants of a board's size. The empirical relevance of these factors is examined using a new dataset that covers the de jure membership...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299135
We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299139
We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299140
The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299141
Global excess liquidity roaming the world’s financial markets (or its sudden absence) is sometimes believed to limit sovereign monetary policy even in large economies such as the euro area. However, there is still discussion about what constitutes global excess liquidity and how exactly it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299143
In recent years, fiscal performance in Central Europe has steadily deteriorated, in contrast to the improvement in the Baltics. This paper explores the determinants of such differences among countries on the path to EU accession. Regression estimates suggest that economic and institutional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299100
In this note, we use multivariate models estimated with Bayesian techniques and an out-ofsample approach to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes output growth in the United States. We find surprisingly strong evidence for a money-output link over the 1960-2005 period. However, further...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299137
How many people should decide about monetary policy? In this paper, we take an empirical perspective on this issue, analyzing the relationship between the number of monetary policy decisionmakers and monetary policy outcomes. Using a new data set that characterizes Monetary Policy Committees...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299138