This paper offers a new method for estimation and forecasting of the linear and nonlinear time series when the stationarity assumption is violated. Our general local parametric approach particularly applies to general varying-coefficient parametric models, such as AR or GARCH, whose coefficients...

In this paper we propose a Libor model with a high-dimensional speciallystructured system of driving CIR volatility processes. A stablecalibration procedure which takes into account a given local correlationstructure is presented. The calibration algorithm is FFT based, so fastand easy to implement.

In this article we propose several pathwise and finite difference basedmethods for calculating sensitivities of Bermudan options using regressionmethods and Monte Carlo simulation. These methods rely on conditionalprobabilistic representations which allow, in combination with aregression...

In the ideal Black-Scholes world, financial time series are assumed 1) stationary (time homogeneous) and 2) having conditionally normal distribution given the past. These two assumptions have been widely-used in many methods such as the RiskMetrics, one risk management method considered as...

Over recent years, study on risk management has been prompted by the Basel committee for regular banking supervisory. There are however limitations of some widely-used risk management methods that either calculate risk measures under the Gaussian distributional assumption or involve numerical...

Measuring dependence in a multivariate time series is tantamount to modelling its dynamic structure in space and time. In the context of a multivariate normally distributed time series, the evolution of the covariance (or correlation) matrix over time describes this dynamic. A wide variety of...

A new algorithm for finding value functions of finite horizon optimal stopping problems in one-dimensional diffusion models is presented. It is based on a time discretization of the corresponding integral equation. The proposed iterative procedure for solving the discretized integral equation...

In this paper we carry over the concept of reverse probabilistic representations developed in Milstein, Schoenmakers, Spokoiny (2004) for diffusion processes, to discrete time Markov chains. We outline the construction of reverse chains in several situations and apply this to processes which are...

Here we develop an approach for efficient pricing discrete-time American and Bermudan options which employs the fact that such options are equivalent to theEuropean ones with a consumption, combined with analysis of the market model over a small number of steps ahead. This approach allows...

In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion Libor model with jumps in ahigh-dimensional space (R^m) and test a stable non-parametric calibrationalgorithm which takes into account a given local covariance structure.The algorithm returns smooth and simply structured Lévy densities, andpenalizes the...