This study examines profits and speculation in the USD/EUR trading of a bank in Germanyover a four-month period. Dealing activity at the bank generates profits but speculation doesnot seem to contribute to this. We find that speculative positions fail to become profitablewithin a 30-minutes'...

Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchangerates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despitethis limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecastingpower and thus help policy-makers to prevent...

This paper analyzes the behaviour and motivation of fund managers in foreign exchangemarkets reflected in questionnaire evidence. We find that fund managers andFX dealers differ significantly. Fund managers rely more on fundamentals, basicallydue to their longer forecasting horizons, and reject...