We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminatingbetween competing sources of this return predictability...

The recent U.S. house price bubble and the subsequent deep financial crisis have renewed the interest in reliable identification methods for asset price bubbles. While there is a growing number of studies focussing on the detection of U.S. regional bubbles, estimations of the likely starting...

While most economists agree that the recent worldwide financial crises evolved as a consequence of the US house price bubble, the related literature yet failed to deliver a consensus on the question when exactly the bubble started developing. The estimates in the literature range in between 1997...

We analyze the contribution of speculation to exchange rate volatility using different assumptions regarding speculation strategies and monetary policy rules. We take the DORNBUSCH (1976) model as the starting point and adopt a slight modification of the money demand specification. With a money...

Bayesian learning provides a core concept of information processing in financialmarkets. Typically it is assumed that market participants perfectly know the qual-ity of released news. However, in practice, news’ precision is rarely disclosed. Therefore, we extend standard Bayesian learning...

This paper investigates the capital market relations between Euroland and the USA from 1990 until 2006. Formally based on the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), backward recursive estimations establish a long-run equilibrium between European and US government bond yields. Since the mid-1990s...

This paper investigates how media coverage in°uences macroeconomic informationprocessing at the bond market. I provide evidence that a high media coverage of aneconomic topic increases investor attention prior to the release of the corresponding economic indicator: High media coverage of the...

In this paper, the capital market relations between the Euro area and the USA are subject to investigation. Formally based on the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), first a longrun equilibrium between Euro and US government bond yields is established in backward recursively estimated vector...

This paper examines the comovement of the stock market and of real activity inGermany before World War I under the efficient market hypothesis. We employ multivariate spectral analysis to compare rivaling national product estimates to stock market behavior in the frequency domain. Close...

We present a dynamic general equilibrium model with agency costs, where heterogeneous firms choose among two alternative instruments of external finance - corporate bonds and bank loans. We characterize the financing choice of firms and the endogenous financial structure of the economy. The...