Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht die Wirkungen eines Importzolls auf die Beschäftigung und die Leistungsbilanz der kleinen offenen Wirtschaft. Ne- ben der makroökonomischen Totalanalyse von Zollwirkungen steht die mi- kroökonomische Fundierung des verwendeten Modells im Mittelpunkt. Die...

We analyze the contribution of speculation to exchange rate volatility using different assumptions regarding speculation strategies and monetary policy rules. We take the DORNBUSCH (1976) model as the starting point and adopt a slight modification of the money demand specification. With a money...

This paper analyses mutual causalities between crude oil price and euro / US dollar exchange rate. Instead of focusing on long-run macroeconomic linkages like the bulk of therelevant literature, the present approach takes a financial markets perspective using daily data. The fast-running...

This paper demonstrates effects of economic convergence processes on the foreign exchange behaviour in a monetary modelling approach. Since the exchange rate represents the relative price of two currencies, commonness of stochastic trends between the fundamental determinants of supply and demand...

Past empirical research on monetary policy in open economies has found evidence of the ’delayed overshooting’, the ’forward discount’ and the ’exchange rate’ puzzles. We revisit the effects of monetary policy on exchange rates by applying Uhlig’s (2005) identification procedure that...

Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchangerates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despitethis limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecastingpower and thus help policy-makers to prevent...

This paper analyzes the behaviour and motivation of fund managers in foreign exchangemarkets reflected in questionnaire evidence. We find that fund managers andFX dealers differ significantly. Fund managers rely more on fundamentals, basicallydue to their longer forecasting horizons, and reject...

Today´s derivate pricing base on stochastic models developed in the 70´s. These models base on some unrealistic assumptions. The system WARRANT PRO 1 presented here combines the software agent PISA (Partially Intelligent Software Agent) and the neurosimulator FAUN (Fast Approximation with...