We compare the performance of six classes of models at forecasting di↵erent types of economic series in an extensive pseudo out-of-sample exercise. Our findings can be summarized in a few points: (i) Regularized Data-Rich Model Averaging techniques are hard to beat in general and are the best...

This paper describes a large-scale Canadian macroeconomic database in monthly frequency. The dataset contains hundreds of Canadian and provincial economic indicators observed from 1981. It is designed to be updated regularly through StatCan database and is publicly available. It relieves users...

This paper proposes a simple nonlinear framework to produce real-time multi-horizon forecasts of economic activity as well as conditional forecasts that depend on whether the horizon of interest belongs to a recessionary episode or not. Our forecasting models take the form of an autoregression...

We examine the dynamic effects of credit shocks using a large data set of U.S. economic and financial indicators in a structural factor model. An identified credit shock resulting in an unanticipated increase in credit spreads causes a large and persistent downturn in indicators of real economic...

Temporal aggregation in general introduces a moving average (MA) component in the aggregated model. A similar feature emerges when not all but only a few variables are aggregated, which generates a mixed frequency model. The MA component is generally neglected, likely to preserve the possibility...

The objective of this paper is to measure the impact of first-pillar public pensions spending on the prevalence of poverty among the elderly. Using data from 27 European countries from 1995 to 2014, we estimate the elasticity of the poverty rate among individuals aged over 65 years to per capita...