This paper theoretically assesses the role that uncertainty plays in the intensity of conflicts. The standard two-player rent-seeking contest model (Tullock, 1980) is extended to allow for privately known subjective values of the prize. The conflict is modeled as a Bayesian game on which each...

In this paper, we study how between-group wealth and size heterogeneity affect success probabilities as well as aggregate rent-seeking efforts when two groups compete for the allocation of a pure public good. Unlike with previous models, we measure the utility cost of rent-seeking in terms of...

This paper studies the effect of strengthening democracy, as captured by an increase in voting rights, on the incidence of violent civil conflict in nineteenth-century Colombia. Empirically studying the relationship between democracy and conflict is challenging, not only because of conceptual...

This paper proposes a new identification strategy to estimate the causal impact of illicit drug markets on violence using a panel of Colombian municipalities covering the period 1994-2008. Using a UNODC survey of Colombian rural households involved in coca cultivation, we estimate the...

We model the war on drugs in source countries as a conflict over scarce inputs of successive levels of the production and trafficking chain. We explicitly model the vertical structure of the drug trade as being composed of several stages, and study how different policies aimed at different...

This paper explores the importance of the risk of violence on the decision making of rural households, using a unique panel data set for Colombian coffee-growers. We identify two channels. First, we examine the direct impact of conflict on agricultural production through the change in the...

Spanish Abstract: Este documento recopila y analiza la evidencia disponible sobre los vínculos entre oportunidades económicas, empleo y violencia asociada a jóvenes en América Latina y el Caribe. Como parte de una iniciativa liderada por El Centro Internacional de Investigaciones para el...

English Abstract: Research on deforestation has grown exponentially due to the availability of satellitebased measures of forest cover. One of the most popular is Global Forest Change (GFC). Using GFC, we estimate that the Colombian civil conflict increases ‘forest cover'. Using an alternative...

Spanish Abstract: El primer punto del Acuerdo de La Habana [y del Teatro Colón], “Hacia un nuevo campo colombiano: una reforma rural integral”, promueve la asignación de tierras a familias campesinas que carecen de tierra o tienen tierra insuficiente. Para esto, propone la creación de un...

Spanish Abstract: La firma del acuerdo de paz colombiano resultó en la desmovilización y reincorporación a la vida civil de más de 12.000 excombatientes de las FARC. El conflicto, que estuvo activo casi 60 años, causó más de ocho millones de víctimas y una sociedad dividida. No abordar...