This paper theoretically assesses the role that uncertainty plays in the intensity of conflicts. The standard two-player rent-seeking contest model (Tullock, 1980) is extended to allow for privately known subjective values of the prize. The conflict is modeled as a Bayesian game on which each...

Using Facebook's release in a given language as an exogenous source of variation in access to social media where the language is spoken, we show that Facebook has had a significant and sizable positive impact on citizen protests. By exploiting variation in a large sample of countries during...

Spanish Abstract: ¿Pueden los medios determinar el éxito o fracaso de las reformas institucionales? Estudiamos la adopción del voto secreto en los Estados Unidos y el papel de los medios de comunicación en este paso crucial para mejorar la democracia. Utilizando una estrategia de...

This paper studies the effects of disclosing information about politician misbehavior on trust in public institutions. I use news bulletins from the main anti-corruption agency in Colombia announcing disciplinary prosecutions against municipal mayors. I exploit the timing of the bulletin's...

Tax evasion lies at the core of the relationship between citizens and the state: it reflects the level of trust in the state and compliance with society's implicit ‘social contract'. However, empirically analyzing it is challenging, with few direct and reliable measures. This has hampered the...

We describe some features of the political environment in Colombia, drawing from a unique panel dataset of about 10,000 households. Contrasting responses in 2013 and 2016, we document a persistent lack of interest in politics and prevailing clientelism, with personalistic links dominating...

Enduring violent conflict is the flip side of the coin of a weak state. In this article, I propose some political economy underpinnings for the persistence of conflict (and the weak state). Focusing on the case of Colombia, I discuss three broad sets of mechanisms that are also relevant...

In this paper, I examine the conditions under which rewarding honest taxpayers is an optimal mechanism to reduce tax evasion and improve collection. My theoretical model suggests that when it is expensive to audit contributors, and moral (or pecuniary) evasion cost is high enough, rewarding tax...

The corporate wealth tax is commonly associated with a non-optimal policy in terms of fiscal revenue and efficiency. However, there is no empirical evidence regarding the behavioral response of firms to this tax. By using a "bunching" methodology, which takes advantage of the non-linearities...

English Abstract: Development outcomes come in 'clusters' that seem difficult to exit. Using original data from Colombia, we present evidence of the interconnection between two critical political components: state weakness and clientelism. State weakness creates the right environment for...