Policy rules that are consistent with inflation targeting are examined in a small macro-econometric model of the US economy. We compare the properties and outcomes of explicit "instrument rules" as well as "targeting rules". The latter, which imply implicit instrument rules, may be closer to...

Using a small empirical model of inflation, output, and money estimated on U.S. data, we compare the relative performance of monetary targeting and inflation targeting. The results show that monetary targeting would be quite inefficient, with both higher inflation and output variability. This is...

We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic...