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Policy implications are derived for an inflation-targeting central bank, whose credibility is endogenous and depends on … occur, depending on the credibility of the central bank. Deflationary spirals can be prevented with a high inflation target …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978053
Elevated inflation can threaten the credibility of central banks and increase the risk that inflation expectations do …-varying propagation of inflationary shocks that improves forecasting performance of inflation and wage growth. Central bank credibility is … endogenous in our model and depends on several notions of the learning mechanism. Weaker credibility and a higher risk of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014558998
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I construct a weekly measure of real economic activity in Canada. Based on the work of Aruoba et al. (2009), the indicator is extracted as an unobserved component underlying the co-movement of four monthly observed real macroeconomic variables - employment, manufacturing sales, retail sales and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010204815
This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index. Based on a Markov-switching model, high financial stress regimes are...
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This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011697685
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