We address the problem how to estimate default probabilities for sovereign countries based on market data of traded debt. A structural Merton-type model is applied to a sample of emerging market and transition countries. In this context, only few and heterogeneous default probabilities are...

Instruments of risk mitigation play an important role in managing country risk within the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision. Our study assesses country risk by state-dependent preferences and introduces futures contracts as a tool of risk mitigation. We show that country risk assessments...

Current explanations why a growing economy necessarily goes through booms and recessions predict countercyclical R&D investment. As this is very controversial from an empirical perspective, a stochastic Poissonmodel of endogenous business cycles and growth is presented where the determinants of...

We quantify the probability that a sovereign defaults on repayment obligations in foreign currency. Adopting the structural approach as first introduced by Merton, we consider the sovereigns ability-to-pay, characterised by the sum of discounted future payment surpluses, as the underlying...

In dem vorliegenden Papier wird untersucht, inwieweit Verbraucherschutz und der Informationsstand von Konsumenten einen Einfluss auf die Entwicklung einer Industrie haben. Hierzu wird das evolutorische Simulationsmodell von Winter (1984) um einen explizit modellierten Konsumsektor in Anlehnung...