We address the problem how to estimate default probabilities for sovereign countries based on market data of traded debt. A structural Merton-type model is applied to a sample of emerging market and transition countries. In this context, only few and heterogeneous default probabilities are...

To clarify the causal links between financial activity and economic growth, three theoretical models are analyzed and a structural equation path models is estimated. In the modeling part, poverty traps result from large fixed costs or high proportions of real investment to run a financial...

Current explanations why a growing economy necessarily goes through booms and recessions predict countercyclical R&D investment. As this is very controversial from an empirical perspective, a stochastic Poissonmodel of endogenous business cycles and growth is presented where the determinants of...

An endogenous growth model with a financial sector is formulated, and empirical analyses are conducted. The model exhibits structural shifts and breaks caused by institutional change, suggesting that a linear approach is inadequate. To address this point empirically, we fit data for 90 countries...

In dem vorliegenden Papier wird untersucht, inwieweit Verbraucherschutz und der Informationsstand von Konsumenten einen Einfluss auf die Entwicklung einer Industrie haben. Hierzu wird das evolutorische Simulationsmodell von Winter (1984) um einen explizit modellierten Konsumsektor in Anlehnung...

This paper investigates contagion effects. In a model with highly and lowly informed investors we show that a currency crisis in one country can trigger a crisis in another country. Portfolio losses of the highly informed investors in one country will force them to withdraw capital from the...