This paper examines the distributional impacts of the changes to benefits, tax credits, pensions and direct taxes between the UK Elections in May 2010 and in May 2015. It also looks ahead to the longer-term effects of changes and plans that were announced by the 2010-2015 Coalition government,...

We apply microsimulation techniques to estimate the first-order effects of tax-benefit policy changes since the beginning of the financial and economic crisis in 2008. Using the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD in combination with the EU-SILC 2012 micro-data, we provide comparative estimates for...

The distributional impact of policy changes is usually considered in terms of equivalised household income, assuming that each individual within the household is being affected in the same way, as a result of complete income pooling. The aim of this paper is to extend this approach by...

This paper evaluates the redistributive effect of a comprehensive set of housing-related policies, taking into account the housing advantage of homeowners and social tenants. We use the Euromod microsimulation model to simulate housing policies in Estonia, Italy and the United Kingdom....

We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United States and the euro area. To sharpen our estimation, we include in the information set macro data and survey data on inflation and interest rate expectations at various future...

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...

In comparison with the large literature on house prices, housing investments have been studied far less. This paper investigates the behavior of private residential investments for the six largest European economies, namely: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom....

This paper attempts to model the nominal and real exchange rate for Ireland, relative to Germany and the UK from 1975 to 2003. It offers an overview of the theory of purchasing power parity (Ppp), focusing particularly on likely sources of nonlinearity. Potential difficulties in placing the...

This paper explores the role that inflation forecasts play in the uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of alternative monetary rules on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We use the inflation forecasts of 8 competing models in a standard Bayesian VAR to analyse the size...