Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

The article presents the Bank’s new macroeconomic projections. For the first time, and in accordance with the change in the publication of the euro area projections by the ECB, the projection period includes the year t+2, in this case 2016. It should be stressed that the uncertainty around the...

The current economic situation in the euro area is causing serious concern. While the measures adopted by the European authorities since the end of 2011 did temporarily ease the uncertainty and financial tensions at the beginning of 2012, renewed nervousness on the sovereign debt markets and...

Since the publication of the Bank’s previous macroeconomic projections in June 2012, the global economic environment has become much less buoyant. In the euro area, economic activity is now also slowing down rapidly in countries that were previously less affected by the crisis. Against this...

This article presents the Bank’s new macroeconomic projections for 2014-2016. They have been produced for the first time on the basis of the national accounts ESA 2010. They already take account of the measures adopted by the new federal government and the federated entities in accordance with...

The Bank’s new macroeconomic projections for 2013 and 2014 were produced in a low-key international context featuring wide variations in performance between the main economic regions and an apparent disconnect between the real economy and the financial sphere. On the one hand, a vigorous...

The economic and financial environment has become much gloomier in recent months, with the slowdown in activity and international trade, the dramatic worsening of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area and its impact on financial institutions, and the plummeting confidence of business...