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Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth : An Assessment of Real-Time Performance Based on Vintage Data

Diron, Marie - 2021

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317625

Does Uncertainty Affect Participation in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters?

López-Pérez, Víctor - 2015

This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to participate in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. Two different approaches are employed in order to address this question. First, a time-series analysis explores if changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020645

Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity

Drechsel, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2008

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604971

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Timmermann, Allan - 2006

raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780429

Predictive Density Aggregation : A Model for Global GDP Growth

Caselli, Francesca - 2020

In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Specifically,we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829696

Flow on Conjunctural Information and Forecast of Euro Area Economic Activity

Drechsel, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316489

An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka

Amarasekara, Chandranath - 2018

, is expected to serve as a core forecasting model in the process of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka's move towards flexible …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913897

Systematizing Macroframework Forecasting : High-Dimensional Conditional Forecasting with Accounting Identities

Ando, Sakai; Kim, Taehoon - 2022

Forecasting a macroframework, which consists of many macroeconomic variables and accounting identities, is widely … conducted in the policy arena to present an economic narrative and check its consistency. Such forecasting, however, is …. This paper proposes a method to systematically forecast macroframework by integrating (1) conditional forecasting with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082216

After-Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic : Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage

Das, Sonali; Wingender, Philippe; Barrett, Philip; … - 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013305635

The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies

Mehl, Arnaud - 2006

-of-sample forecasting performance. Differences across countries are seemingly linked to market liquidity. The paper further finds that the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604737