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Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth : An Assessment of Real-Time Performance Based on Vintage Data

Diron, Marie - 2021

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317625

Does Uncertainty Affect Participation in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters?

López-Pérez, Víctor - 2015

This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to participate in the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. Two different approaches are employed in order to address this question. First, a time-series analysis explores if changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020645

Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity

Drechsel, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2008

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604971

Consumer Confidence as a Predictor of Consumption Spending : Evidence for the United States and the Euro Area

Dees, Stephane - 2011

For most academics and policy makers, the depth of the 2007-09 financial crisis, its longevity and its impacts on the real economy resulted from an erosion of confidence. This paper proposes to assess empirically the link between consumer sentiment and consumption expenditures for the United...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124648

Putting the New Keynesian DSGE Model to the Real-Time Forecasting Test

Kolasa, Marcin - 2009

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155104

Supply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model

Dees, Stephane; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa; … - 2021

This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316169

Flow on Conjunctural Information and Forecast of Euro Area Economic Activity

Drechsel, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316489

Estimating the Euro Area Output Gap Using Multivariate Information and Addressing the COVID-19 Pandemic

Morley, James; Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez; Sun, Yiqiao; … - 2022

We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range of variables in the analysis and addresses data issues associated with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014078099

Assessing fiscal episodes

Afonso, António; Jalles, João Tovar - In: Economic modelling 37 (2014), pp. 255-270

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010417694

Financial crises, exchange rate linkages and uncovered interest parity : evidence from G7 markets

Dimitriou, Dimitrios; Kenourgios, Dimitris; Simos, Theodore - In: Economic modelling 66 (2017), pp. 112-120

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813672