This paper argues that any assessment on the intentional stance of fiscal policy should be based upon all the information available to policymakers at the time of fiscal planning. In particular, real-time data on the discretionary fiscal policy "instrument", the structural primary balance,...

Do capital markets impose fiscal discipline on governments? We investigate the responses of fiscal variables to a change in the interest rate paid by governments on their debt in a panel of 14 European countries over four decades. This is done in the context of a panel vector autoregressive...

In this paper we analyse the interaction of fiscal rules and fiscal space. We find strong evidence for fiscal rules being associated with higher fiscal space. Furthermore, the analysis shows that countries with more fiscal space tend to have higher discretionary expenditures, but that this...

In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of...

We use a threshold VAR analysis to study whether the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity differ depending on financial market conditions. In particular, we investigate the possibility of a non-linear propagation of fiscal developments according to different financial market stress...

The study looks at primary expenditure developments in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries for the period 1999-2009. It compares actual expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on...

This paper presents the Annual Progress Report (APR) 2004 on Senegal’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). The APR analyzes the 2004 macroeconomic framework for the purpose of comparing the forecasts under the various scenarios and the results obtained. Budgetary programming and...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic activity in Moldova benefited from a favorable external environment in 2003–04. GDP grew by 6.3 percent in 2003, advancing to 6.5 percent (year over year) in the first half of 2004. Large and rising workers’ remittances...

This paper reviews the Interim Staff Report Under Intensified Surveillance for Jamaica. The authorities have reaffirmed their objective of balancing the budget in FY 2005/06, while recognizing that this now poses a greater challenge. The IMF staff now estimates that measures in the range of...