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Effects of State-Dependent Forward Guidance, Large-Scale Asset Purchases and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low-Interest-Rate Environment

Coenen, Günter - 2020

We study the incidence and severity of lower-bound episodes and the efficacy of three types of state-dependent policies—forward guidance about the future path of interest rates, large-scale asset purchases and spending-based fiscal stimulus—in ameliorating the adverse consequences stemming...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844862

Does government spending crowd in private consumption? Theory and empirical evidence for the euro area

Coenen, Günter; Straub, Roland - 2005

In this paper, we revisit the effects of government spending shocks on private consumption within an estimated New … presence of non-Ricardian households is in general conducive to raising the level of consumption in response to government … only a fairly small chance that government spending shocks crowd in consumption, mainly because the estimated share of non …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604559

Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model

Coenen, Günter; McAdam, Peter; Straub, Roland - 2007

In this paper, we employ a calibrated two-country version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) currently under development at the European Central Bank to examine the potential benefits and spillovers of reducing labour-market distortions caused by euro area tax structures. Our analysis shows that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604793

Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: long-run benefits and short-run costs.

Coenen, Günter; Mohr, Matthias; Straub, Roland - 2008

fiscal consolidation has positive long-run effects on key macroeconomic aggregates such as output and consumption, notably …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604948

Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area

Coenen, Günter; Straub, Roland; Trabandt, Mathias - 2012

government consumption and, to a lesser extent, between private and public capital. We first examine the implied present … larger than one for government consumption and investment. We highlight the importance of monetary accommodation for these …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605528

Fiscal policy and the Great Recession in the Euro Area

Coenen, Günter - 2012

How much did fiscal policy contribute to euro area real GDP growth during the Great Recession? We estimate that discretionary fiscal measures have increased annualized quarterly real GDP growth during the crisis by up to 1.6 percentage points. We obtain our result by using an extended version of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108718

Fiscal Consolidation in the Euro Area : Long-Run Benefits and Short-Run Costs

Coenen, Günter - 2008

fiscal consolidation has positive long-run effects on key macroeconomic aggregates such as output and consumption, notably …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012772045

The New Area-Wide Model of the Euro Area : A Micro-Founded Open-Economy Model for Forecasting and Policy Analysis

Christoffel, Kai Philipp - 2008

In this paper, we outline a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area designed for use in the (Broad) Macroeconomic Projection Exercises regularly undertaken by ECB/Eurosystem staff. We present estimation results for the NAWM that are obtained by employing Bayesian inference...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770293

Risks to Price Stability, the Zero Lower Bound and Forward Guidance : A Real-Time Assessment

Coenen, Günter - 2013

This paper employs stochastic simulations of the New Area-Wide Model -- a micro-founded open-economy model developed at the ECB -- to investigate the consequences of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates for the evolution of risks to price stability in the Euro area during the recent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013077685

The New Area-Wide Model II : An Extended Version of the ECB’s Micro-Founded Model for Forecasting and Policy Analysis with a Financial Sector

Coenen, Günter; Karadi, Peter; Schmidt, Sebastian; … - 2021

This paper provides a detailed description of an extended version of the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area (cf. Christoffel, Coenen, and Warne 2008). The extended model—called NAWM II—incorporates a rich financial sector with the threefold aim of (i) accounting for a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315382