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Identification and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles in the USA and Switzerland

Ardila, Diego; Sanadgol, Dorsa; Cauwels, Peter; … - 2014

We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two …, 35, and 90 national-level macroeconomic time series and a dynamic forecasting methodology. Empirical results suggests …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411858

Consumer Confidence as a Predictor of Consumption Spending : Evidence for the United States and the Euro Area

Dees, Stephane - 2011

For most academics and policy makers, the depth of the 2007-09 financial crisis, its longevity and its impacts on the real economy resulted from an erosion of confidence. This paper proposes to assess empirically the link between consumer sentiment and consumption expenditures for the United...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124648

Putting the New Keynesian DSGE Model to the Real-Time Forecasting Test

Kolasa, Marcin - 2009

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155104

Supply, Demand and Monetary Policy Shocks in a Multi-Country New Keynesian Model

Dees, Stephane; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa; … - 2021

This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316169

Estimating the Euro Area Output Gap Using Multivariate Information and Addressing the COVID-19 Pandemic

Morley, James; Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez; Sun, Yiqiao; … - 2022

We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range of variables in the analysis and addresses data issues associated with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014078099

A consistent model of "explosive" financial bubbles with mean-reversing residuals

Lin, Li; Ren, Ruoen; Sornette, Didier - 2009

We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors' beliefs and sentiments. The conditional expected returns...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003970340

Systemic risk and sentiment : chapter contribution to handbook on systemic risk ; [edited by Jean-Pierre Fouque and Joe Langsam]

Barone-Adesi, Giovanni; Mancini, Loriano; Shefrin, Hersh - 2011

Regulators charged with monitoring systemic risk need to focus on sentiment as well as narrowly defined measures of systemic risk. This chapter describes techniques for jointly monitoring the co-evolution of sentiment and systemic risk. To measure systemic risk, we use Marginal Expected...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009375111

Are REITs real estate? : evidence from international sector level data

Hoesli, Martin; Oikarinen, Elias - 2012

The aim of this study is to examine whether securitized real estate returns reflect direct real estate returns or general stock market returns using international data for the U.S., U.K., and Australia. In contrast to previous research, which has generally relied on overall real estate market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009558452

Apparent criticality and calibration issues in the Hawkes self-excited point process model : application to high-frequency financial data

Filimonov, Vladimir; Sornette, Didier - 2013

We present a careful analysis of possible issues of the application of the self-excited Hawkes process to high-frequency financial data and carefully analyze a set of effects that lead to significant biases in the estimation of the "criticality index'' n that quantifies the degree of endogeneity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257507

Commonality in liquidity and real estate securities

Hoesli, Martin; Kadilli, Anjeza; Reka, Kustrim - 2014

We conduct an empirical investigation of the pricing and economic sources of commonality in liquidity in the U.S. REIT market. Taking advantage of the specific characteristics of REITs, we analyze three types of commonality in liquidity: within-asset commonality, cross-asset commonality (with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412872