Showing 1 - 10 of 49
We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two …, 35, and 90 national-level macroeconomic time series and a dynamic forecasting methodology. Empirical results suggests …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411858
We present a careful analysis of possible issues of the application of the self-excited Hawkes process to high-frequency financial data and carefully analyze a set of effects that lead to significant biases in the estimation of the "criticality index'' n that quantifies the degree of endogeneity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257507
We consider the detection of multiple outliers in Exponential and Pareto samples -- as well as general samples that have approximately Exponential or Pareto tails, thanks to Extreme Value Theory. It is shown that a simple "robust'' modification of common test statistics makes inward sequential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411972
I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012923312
Inspired by the question of identifying the start time τ of financial bubbles, we address the calibration of time series in which the inception of the latest regime of interest is unknown. By taking into account the tendency of a given model to overfit data, we introduce the Lagrange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877499
The financial crisis which erupted in the United States of America in 2007 drove the real economic sector into a crisis that has diminshed the world’s economic growth thereafter. There is no single theory that can explain what has happened in the US. Eventhough there were a few financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011258969
The need for effective supervision of capital markets is becoming all the more evident in the aftermath of the recent LIBOR and rate rigging scandals. Financial regulators or indeed bank regulators cannot perform such a function effectively without the involvement of auditors in the supervisory...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259086
This paper reviews the impact of environmental variables on firms’ capital structure throughout the recent financial crises (dot.com bubble, subprime crisis, and European sovereign debt crisis). For the first time, the sovereign general gross debt and current account balance appear in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011260294
This paper builds a theoretical model based on Allen and Gale (2000) to analyse how unexpected shock affecting the banking assets in one region can generate bankruptcy in a second region. I also analyse the effect of the presence in a third region of an Islamic bank on the vulnerability of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011260857
In response to the recent Financial Crisis - after it had been widely accepted that “a serious disturbance in the economy of Member States” had occurred, and that several measures were required to remedy this disturbance, various Commission communications were adopted. The Communications...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009294582