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Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data

Diron, Marie - 2006

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604668

Electronic transactions as high-frequency indicators of economic activity

Galbraith, John W. (contributor); Tkacz, Greg (contributor) - 2007

or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. However …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003641311

Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth : An Assessment of Real-Time Performance Based on Vintage Data

Diron, Marie - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317625

How repayments manipulate our perceptions about loan dynamics after a boom

Adalid, Ramón; Falagiarda, Matteo - 2018

We propose a method to decompose net lending flows into loan origination and repayments. We show that a boom in loan origination is transmitted to repayments with a very long lag, depressing the growth rate of the stock for many periods. In the euro area, repayments of the mortgage loans granted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142055

Multimodality in macro-financial dynamics

Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico - 2019

We estimate the evolution of the conditional joint distribution of economic and financial conditions in the United States, documenting a novel empirical fact: while the joint distribution is approximately Gaussian during normal periods, sharp tightenings of financial conditions lead to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012144746

How Repayments Manipulate Our Perceptions about Loan Dynamics after a Boom

Adalid, Ramón; Falagiarda, Matteo - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315372

Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test

Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605156

Euro area labour markets: different reaction to shocks?

Brůha, Jan; Pierluigi, Beatrice; Serafini, Roberta - 2011

A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605330

Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics

Bermingham, Colin; D’Agostino, Antonello - 2011

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead construct forecasts of its components and then sum these component forecasts. Notwithstanding some underlying theoretical results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605411

Heterogeneity and stability: Bolster the strong, not the weak

Choi, Dong Beom - 2013

This paper provides a model of systemic panic among financial institutions with heterogeneous fragilities. Concerns about potential spillovers from each other generate strategic interaction among institutions, triggering a preemption game in which one tries to exit the market before the others...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333577

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