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Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data
Diron, Marie - 2006
Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604668
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Electronic transactions as high-frequency indicators of economic activity
Galbraith, John W. (contributor); Tkacz, Greg (contributor) - 2007
or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. However …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003641311
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Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth : An Assessment of Real-Time Performance Based on Vintage Data
Diron, Marie - 2021
Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317625
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High frequency data and a weekly economic index during the pandemic
Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel; Stock, James H.; … - 2020
This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI, with its ten component series, tracks the overall economy. Comparing the contributions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012391505
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Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index
Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel; Stock, James H.; … - 2020 - Revised September 2020
This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of real economic activity, with eight of ten series available...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012200037
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How repayments manipulate our perceptions about loan dynamics after a boom
Adalid, Ramón; Falagiarda, Matteo - 2018
We propose a method to decompose net lending flows into loan origination and repayments. We show that a boom in loan origination is transmitted to repayments with a very long lag, depressing the growth rate of the stock for many periods. In the euro area, repayments of the mortgage loans granted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142055
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How Repayments Manipulate Our Perceptions about Loan Dynamics after a Boom
Adalid, Ramón; Falagiarda, Matteo - 2021
We propose a method to decompose net lending flows into loan origination and repayments. We show that a boom in loan origination is transmitted to repayments with a very long lag, depressing the growth rate of the stock for many periods. In the euro area, repayments of the mortgage loans granted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315372
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Multimodality in macro-financial dynamics
Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico - 2019
We estimate the evolution of the conditional joint distribution of economic and financial conditions in the United States, documenting a novel empirical fact: while the joint distribution is approximately Gaussian during normal periods, sharp tightenings of financial conditions lead to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012123512
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Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test
Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009
. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605156
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Euro area labour markets: different reaction to shocks?
Brůha, Jan; Pierluigi, Beatrice; Serafini, Roberta - 2011
A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605330