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policymaker's preferences, and the forecasting horizons …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120562
The paper develops an early-warning model for predicting vulnerabilities leading to distress in European banks using both bank and country-level data. As outright bank failures have been rare in Europe, the paper introduces a novel dataset that complements bankruptcies and defaults with state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074637
Early-warning models most commonly optimize signaling thresholds on crisis probabilities. The expost threshold optimization is based upon a loss function accounting for preferences between forecast errors, but comes with two crucial drawbacks: unstable thresholds in recursive estimations and an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962344