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Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression

Chavleishvili, Sulkhan; Manganelli, Simone - 2019

We introduce a structural quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Unlike standard VAR which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. We show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142174

Investing in crises

Baron, Matthew; Laeven, Luc; Pénasse, Julien; Usenko, … - 2021

We investigate asset returns around banking crises in 44 advanced and emerging economies from 1960 to 2018. In contrast to the view that buying assets during banking crises is a profitable long-run strategy, we find returns of equity and other asset classes generally underperform after banking...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605244

Managing the sovereign-bank nexus

Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni; Ferreira, Caio; Jenkinson, Nigel; … - 2018

This paper identifies the various channels that give rise to a "sovereign-bank nexus" whereby the financial health of banks and sovereigns is intertwined. We find that banks and sovereigns are linked by three interacting channels: banks hold large amounts of sovereign debt; banks are protected...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011916881

Public guarantees, private banks' incentives, and corporate outcomes: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis

Jiménez, Gabriel; Laeven, Luc; Martinez-Miera, David; … - 2024

We show that public guaranteed loans (PGL) increase credit availability improving real effects, but private banks' incentives imply that weaker banks shift riskier corporate loans to taxpayers. We exploit credit register data during the COVID-19 shock in Spain, and a stylized model guides the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014543611

Monetary policy, macroprudential policy and financial stability

Laeven, Luc; Maddaloni, Angela; Mendicino, Caterina - 2022

Recent research developed under the ECB research task force on Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability highlights the existence of trade-offs and spillovers that monetary policy and macroprudential authorities face when deciding on their policy interventions, Monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013272138

Quantifying financial stability trade-offs for monetary policy: A quantile VAR approach

Chavleishvili, Sulkhan; Kremer, Manfred; Lund-Thomsen, … - 2023

We propose a novel empirical approach to inform monetary policymakers about the potential effects of policy action when facing trade-offs between financial and macroeconomic stability. We estimate a quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) for the euro area covering the real economy, monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374777

Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth

Chavleishvili, Sulkhan; Kremer, Manfred - 2023

This paper proposes a general statistical framework for systemic financial stress indices which measure the severity of financial crises on a continuous scale. Several index designs from the financial stress and systemic risk literature can be represented as special cases. We introduce an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374786

Collateral booms and information depletion

Asriyan, Vladimir; Laeven, Luc; Martin, Alberto - 2019

We develop a new theory of information production during credit booms. In our model, entrepreneurs need credit to undertake investment projects, some of which enable them to divert resources towards private consumption. Lenders can protect themselves from such diversion in two ways:...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142110

The New Area-Wide Model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis

Christoffel, Kai; Coenen, Günter; Warne, Anders - 2008

’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to … illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604990

Forecasting with DSGE models

Christoffel, Kai; Warne, Anders; Coenen, Günter - 2010

In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus … matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area … scope for improving the NAWM’s forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605231